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Scholar dissects voter perceptions of transnational politics

Scholar dissects voter perceptions of transnational politics

CU Boulder political scientist Jeffrey Nonnemacher asserts that Western European national political parties use their affiliations with party families to signal their own political viewpoints


In the 2013 German national elections, the upstart political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) failed to gain a single seat in parliament. Just four years later, the AfD won 97 seats and became the third-largest political party in Germany.

The AfD made its historic inroads in the 2017 German elections at the same time it transformed itself from a听 but relatively moderate party into a political movement that became much more closely aligned with radical right parties in the rest of Western Europe, says听Jeffrey Nonnemacher, an assistant teaching professor with the 91制片厂国产AV听International Affairs Program, whose research focus is political parties and elections.

In particular, Nonnemacher points to a decision by AfD鈥檚 party leader, Frauke Petry, in 2017 to host radical right leaders from across Europe, including Marine Le Pen with the French National Rally, Geert Wilders of the Dutch Party for Freedom and Matteo Salvini of Italy鈥檚 Northern League. That decision effectively telegraphed to voters the party鈥檚 shift to the right and signaled its embrace of the transnational radical right party label, says Nonnemacher, who recently published a paper in the听 about voter perceptions of transnational politics.

portrait of Jeffrey Nonnemacher

CU Boulder scholar Jeffrey Nonnemacher is an assistant teaching professor in the International Affairs Program and the Arts and Sciences Honors Program and a lecturer in the Department of Political Science.

鈥淢y goal with this paper is to tackle the question of: Do voters care if the AfD鈥檚 leadership is spending a lot of time with France鈥檚 Marine Le Pen and the National Rally? Are voters getting some sort of information from the party family label attached to a party and the party鈥檚 relationship with that label?鈥 he explains. In his paper, Nonnemacher contends that political parties in Western Europe are responsive to politics outside their home country鈥攁nd that strategic choices to embrace a larger party family label, such as radical right in the case of AfD, do influence how parties are perceived by a country鈥檚 voters.

In a recent conversation with Colorado Arts and Sciences Magazine, Nonnemacher emphasized that a political party that embraces the party family signifies its commitment to the larger ideological goals associated with the party family, while parties that push back and work to distance themselves from their sister parties from other countries signal that they may not be credible champions for core issues. His answers have been lightly edited for style and clarity.

Question: Can you define what constitutes a transnational party family?

狈辞苍苍别尘补肠丑别谤:听In political science鈥攅specially in comparative politics鈥攐ne of the goals is to think about the ways we can compare political outcomes. One of the ways we do this is by looking at these so-called party families. These are basically categorizations of parties based upon shared histories, shared ideology and common networks of activists and leaders.

There are a whole host of party families. The largest families in Europe are the Social Democrats, which is your center-left, working-class parties, and the Conservatives, which are your traditional center-right parties. You鈥檝e also got your Green parties, which are your environmental parties, among many other families.

These party families are now much more useful than what academics created them for, which was tools for comparisons. Today, parties within similar party families tend to behave the same, learn from each other and form groups that transcend national boundaries based upon shared ideologies.

Question: What motivated you to explore the topic of transnational parties as a source of voter perceptions?

狈辞苍苍别尘补肠丑别谤:听The academic answer is that I felt there was a gap there. We know a lot about how voters in Europe today are concerned about integration and thinking about politics beyond their own borders. But we had not yet, as academics, come to terms with the consequences of this, for听how they view their parties and the links between what information they鈥檙e getting and their political parties. That was the academic motivation.

The more topical answer was the rise of the radical right parties in these various countries and how these parties seemed to be learning from each other, copying each other and celebrating each other鈥檚 victories in a way that we hadn鈥檛 really seen before. You have Hungary鈥檚 Victor Orb谩n hosting CPAC (the U.S.-based Conservative Political Action Conference), and you have Marine Le Pen in France having these big rallies with other radical right leaders.

Viktor Orban onstage at CPAC 2023 in Hungary

Hungary鈥檚 Victor Orb谩n hosts CPAC (the U.S.-based Conservative Political Action Conference). (Photo: Elkes Andor/Wikimedia Commons)

My motivation was trying to understand the consequences of this seeminginternationalization of right party politics especially, but also party politics more generally.

Question: What are some specific reasons why parties might choose to embrace a transnational party?

Nonnemacher: The argument I make in the paper is very much an electoral argument.听Parties win elections when voters know what they stand for. That鈥檚 one of the big theories that we have about party competition, is that parties need to distinguish themselves from their competitors听and be able to communicate to voters what they believe.

If a voter can鈥檛 tell the difference between one party and another, they鈥檙e unlikely to support them. And if a voter doesn鈥檛 know where the party stands, then they don鈥檛 know if they鈥檙e going to get what they want out of the party. So, parties need to distinguish themselves. They need to signal to voters what their positions are.

One of the motivations here for parties is: This label tells voters where I stand. If I鈥檓 seen alongside other Social Democrats, I can kind of bolster my credentials on being a Social Democratic Party.

The other electoral motivation is parties want to win elections, and they look to who won and say, 鈥榃e should copy that.鈥 In 2021, when the Social Democrats won in Germany, Social Democratic parties across Europe all immediatelylooked to Germany and said, 鈥榃hat did they do? How did they win this election? What can we do to听kind of copy that?鈥

Question: So, it鈥檚 not just radical right parties learning from radical right parties in other countries, but also leftist and centrist parties learning from their transnational sister parties?

Nonnemacher: Yes. One of the things I wanted to do in this paper was to make the case that it鈥檚 not just the radical right that鈥檚 doing this and benefitting from it. It鈥檚 the British Labour Party taking lessons from Germany鈥檚 Social Democrats, for example.

Green parties are an especially interesting transnational group, because inherently, they see fighting for the environment as a global issue. They view international cooperation and international learning as core to solving the problems that they are running on. Notably, almost all of them have 鈥榞reen鈥 in their name and almost all of them have the sunflower as their logo.

Question: What makes Germany鈥檚 AfD party a particularly noteworthy example of a national party forming associations with like-minded parties in Western Europe?

Nonnemacher: There鈥檚 probably two reasons for that. One is they exploded in Germany in terms of growing support from 2013 to 2017; the other is that by 2017, the radical right in Europe had exploded. There鈥檚 just a lot more attention on the far right, and it鈥檚 Germany, so whenever the far right does anything in Germany, people notice.

The AfD is an interesting case, because in 2013 they were not听the far-right party that they are today.听They have had a big transformation in the last 10 to 12 years. In 2013, they were really just angry about the European Union and the Euro crisis, and with Germany having to bail out the rest of the European Union.听They were a Euroskeptic party first and foremost.听They were anti-immigrant, but it wasn鈥檛 their main focus.

Marine Le Pen speaking at podium with arm raised

France's Marine Le Pen of the French National Rally has helped lead a far-right shift, particularly on immigration, in Europen politics. (Photo: J茅r茅my-G眉nther-Heinz J盲hnick/Wikimedia Commons)

They had a disappointing election in 2013, where they barely missed out on getting seats in the parliament.Then by 2017, they shifted dramatically to the right on immigration.听They really started to copy France鈥檚 Le Pen and other prominent, far-right leaders in Europe tobe this anti-immigrant party, just like the rest of these radical right parties,听and that worked out really well for them. In 2017, they became the third-largest party in parliament, so it was a quite successful strategy for them.

By the elections in听2021, they plateaued a little bit,听and then in February this year they became the second largest party in the Bundestag (the German parliament), and they鈥檝e come to be embraced by the broader far-right movement.

Question: Why might a national party choose to distance itself from a sister party?

狈辞苍苍别尘补肠丑别谤:听There are two family labels where this generally applies. The first is the radical right鈥攐r at least that was the case in the past鈥攚here if you were seen as too close to the radical right you were punished, because there was a lot of stigmas around being affiliated with that ideology.

With the AfD example, when they made the transition to embrace more radical right principals from other countries and hosted the rally with Le Pen, Wilders and Salvini to signal the AfD鈥檚 embrace of transnational radical right parties, this was incredibly controversial, both inside and outside of the party. It was a delicate balance, because there were some in the party who were very nervous that if they embraced the radical right movement they could face a backlash, because Germans are very conscious of their history. So, 10 years ago there was more hesitation about embracing their fellow party members abroad.

We see similar patterns on the left, especially when it comes to communism. Parties on the radical left are generally hesitant to embrace communists or things that look like communism because of the similar kinds of stigmas around that that exist in western and especially eastern Europe.

Question: Do you think voters are consciously recognizing these European family party associations and how their own parties are relating to sister transnational parties, or is it happening at a subconscious level?

Nonnemacher: We know from political psychology that voters rely on听 for a lot of things. So, just hearing the label鈥攖hat a particular party is a radical right party, for instance, triggers for voters a set of assumptions about what a party stands for and what it鈥檚 leaders believe and what they are advocating for.

But I also believe that there is something much more active going on here, where voters start to make those kinds of connections between the party and the label and where voters deliberate what those labels mean in relation to their own politics.

Question: If a national party is not in alignment with its transnational party family on foundational ideological issues, does it cause voter distrust or just confusion?

Nonnemacher: I think it鈥檚 a bit of both. Definitely it causes confusion, because if you鈥檙e watching the news and you鈥檙e being told that Marine Le Pen is a radical right politician, but then let鈥檚 say you hear she is endorsing letting more immigrants into (Europe), you鈥檙e going to say, 鈥榃ait a minute; that doesn鈥檛 make any sense. How is she radical right, then?鈥

It also probably leads to distrust. If you see yourself as a Social Democratic voter and you believe in this center-left Social Democratic vision for Europe, but your Social Democratic politician is talking about de-regulating markets and shrinking the state, that鈥檚 probably going to make you say, 鈥楬e鈥檚 not a Social Democrat. I don鈥檛 trust him to be an advocate for my goals.鈥

Question: Your paper focused a transnational politics in Western Europe. Do you think the paper鈥檚 findings have any relevance for the United States?

"Understanding how voters perceive their parties is a huge part of what makes democracies work.听If听voters don鈥檛 know what their parties are fighting for and don鈥檛 know where their parties stand, they check out."

狈辞苍苍别尘补肠丑别谤:听I don鈥檛 know how well the paper鈥檚 findings travel to the United States. We have a very strong two-party system that doesn鈥檛 map as neatly to the multi-party competition in European elections. That being said, I think if we look at parties in the United States as factions of various ideological groups, we can see green factions of the Democratic Party, radical right and center-right Christian democratic factions of the Republican Party. I think for activists and people inside these parties, it matters a lot what kind of broader ideological movements that they are associated with are doing.

I鈥檓 skeptical that voters will derive the same utility, just because the labels don鈥檛 fit as neatly, and (American voters) tend to think we鈥檙e unique in our politics as voters, so we don鈥檛 tend to look abroad for political inspiration.

Question: Anything else relating to Western European voters and their perceptions of their political parties and transnational parties that you think is important to share?

狈辞苍苍别尘补肠丑别谤:听I think听understanding how voters perceive their parties is a huge part of what makes democracies work.听If听voters don鈥檛 know what their parties are fighting for and don鈥檛 know where their parties stand, they check out; they disengage,听and we鈥檝e seen that they become less satisfied with democracy.

I think听anything that parties can do to really communicate their positions to voters and reaffirm for voters that they areserious about accomplishing their goals is important, because parties across Europe and the United States are having a credibility crisis right now.

What my paper does is highlight one such way that parties can go about communicating to voters听what they stand for, which has a whole host of implications to address some of the big problems facing Western democracies today.


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